The reason behind my Silence

Hello everyone,

      Well well, it’s summer as everyone knows, the weather is unbelievably hot over here in the Middle east, so i’m Extra Lazy, i decided to take a long vacation away from the internet, from newspapers, from Television, i decided to not Blog so as not to feel obliged to read the news or anything of that sort… anyways, this is nothing but the First reason , but there is a Second reason to explain my extended silence, a more strategic one that i will explain right away : As you all know, a lot of things have been happening lately ( yes i know, i decided not to read the news but … i completely failed to do so) , so back to ” a lot of things have been happening lately”

       First of all, Hamas took over gaza and signed it’s death sentence with it’s own hands, i can’t help it but rejoice! Yes it’s not a secret , i’m Pro Socialism, Pragmatism and Secularism so i can’t be pro Hamas, it’s my Democratic right i guess … No ? I won’t say that i hate Hamas simply because; it’s a waste of energy to hate a whole movement that doesn’t give a damn about my very own existence. Anyways, moving on…

     I’ve been watching very closely President Mahmoud Abbas’s latest moves, declrations and acts. All i can say is that since he decided to act, i feel much safer in my scattered West Bank, even though the Israeli restrictions are still there and restrict my movement between my own cities while building little ( Ugly) settlements here and little (Ugly)  settlements there. I must say that seeing the Palestinian Police on the streets, well armed, well trained and well guided, makes me feel that social peace is finally safeguarded by someone out there. I must also say that his latest political moves made me realize that someone out there had a future plan and not just a Day by Day survival kit.

President Abbas decided to act as a President , a responsible one, and this is much appreciated! Reforming the Security apparatus, reforming the Police, the Law, relaunching the Vital Peace process , bypassing and isolating Hamas after it’s criminal “Coup” in Gaza, and reforming the PLO as well as cleaning up the Palestinian Authority, Restoring the standing of both the Palestinian Authority and the PLO on the international and the Arab scenes, all of these moves were much needed in order to clean the Palesitnian house!

I usually write out of despair and out of disgust, but now since i seem to agree with , say, 90% of what is happening over here, i just can’t help it but not write and watch and hope for better times in the very near future ….

      Over the past Three days, i heard quite a few positive things here and there, First of all, I heard bush supporting the Palestinian Authority and it’s reforms, i heard Rice talking about the ” Need to end the Occupation of the West Bank” , I heard that the Egyptian and the Jordanian Foreign Ministers visited Israel in order to advance a comprehensive Arab Peace initiative, i heard that Ehud Olmert is offering a ” Declaration of Principles” regarding the future Palestinian State, and I heard Mahmoud Abbas totally agreeing to start formulating this declaration as soon as possible…  

      The negative side of all this is that all the actors up there need each other for Survival, Olmert can’t survive without Abbas and Vice Versa, Jordan and Egypt need peace as soon as possible in order to feel safe domestically behind their own frontiers, the Arabs feel pressured by the USA just as Bush needs the Arabs in order to survive ( politically) Iraq’s disaster… I secretly believe that in this region, without pressure, nothing works, when we are weak and Threatened , we seem to act more wisely and more quickly, a few examples:  Olmert decided to act militarily against Hezbollah because he was weak when it all happened and that he needed a war to show that he too can act , he was threatened by Ailing Sharon, yes, Sharon was so powerful that even when he is unconscious, his Authority is still there and a lot of people feel threatened by it, so the Pressure of being the One after Sharon made him act unwisely but quite FAST! Anyways, i have reasons to believe that if Ehud Olmert is acting and talking about peace now, it’s also for his political survival, he needs Abbas in order to show that ” Another way is possible”…

      Abbas’s Political standing was very weak too, he was the one after Yasser Arafat, he was also weak due to Hamas’s “Religious” power, since it’s believed amongst the highest ranks of Hamas that “God” wanted them to win the elections…Back to Abbas, he was too weak “personally” but once his rivals used their military Power to crush him, he used his constitutional and Presidential power and crushed them back by uniting and cleaning his party’s ranks and by restoring some kind of authority on the few territories he still controls and not to forget, by FORCING a new dialog between the Palestinian Authority and Israel…

      The Al-Aqsa Martyrs brigades : they were problematic in the near past, But but but…. under pressure from the Situation, from the President, from their very own leaders, they decided to give up their arms and to become ” partners” in all this process, it’s not because they love Israel or Abbas that they did this, it’s mainly because they hate Hamas, they fear Hezbollah and they can’t stand Iran!

      Jordan and Egypt  felt threatened by the Gaza feud, Jordan feared that this situation was going to reach it’s territories, they also have a few fears because of Iraq….and egypt feared the Awakening of it’s Islamic brotherhood movement as well as Al Qaeda’s Ghost that seems to fly all over the southern borders of Gaza… So both are acting very seriously in order to get it over with the very heavy Palestinian issue!

      The Bush administration : it kind of locked itself up in Iraq, bush is feeling very threatened by Iraq and by the Democrats , he also has a few fears from Al Qaeda ( 9/11 is far away from being forgotten) , so he needs to find a solution to something in the Middle East, and the easiest to resolve at this point seems to be the Palestinian Question! So here too, out of Fear and out of despair, the Palestinian issue is being viewed as the only possible solution to everyones problems! The other Arabs, they fear a lot of things,  mainly Islamism and “American-Cut-of-Aidism”, so they are walking on the footsteps of Bush…

      In other words, there is a very clear interdependence between the USA, Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt , Abbas and the PLO, The Arab states, it’s an interdependence based on fear and weakness, and if this is the thing that will bring peace to the region, let it be! Powerful governments did not bring any kind of peace , maybe the weak ones will….

P.S. After five minutes of deep meditation, i decided to call this post ” The power of Weakness” ….